Token Launches · resolved market
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x320c347735e0acf0aba4e62b39edcbe4413577cf96f5cdfa6330b6d82f397e13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8198…0ab5backed Yes | 0c | 11,810$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…be9dbacked No | 65c | 6,561$4,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.94 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +10.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed Yes | 39c | 5,002$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.56 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,422$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 1c | 2,227$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…832fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,215$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c5…352bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,652$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…908fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,334$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…e15abacked No | 72c | 1,180$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed No | 53c | 1,147$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.16 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 7c | 1,024$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2f95backed Yes | 15c | 745.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed Yes | 51c | 656$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.8 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 653.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…f4aebacked No | 67c | 606.49$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…6086backed Yes | 38c | 400$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 37c | 234.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…e601backed Yes | 71c | 212.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 43c | 159.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…ccf2backed Yes | 33c | 150.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…1140backed No | 19c | 140.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 139.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…eee9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a24…cf2bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed Yes | 19c | 93.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…6611backed Yes | 62c | 76.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked No | 43c | 63.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…fa06backed No | 65c | 43.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…b841backed No | 65c | 43.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5872…62fbbacked No | 67c | 42.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 41.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…602bbacked No | 49c | 37.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 44c | 36.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b2…ede5backed No | 53c | 34.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed Yes | 50c | 31.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d3…5e34backed No | 78c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…11bebacked No | 62c | 30.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc24…8d86backed No | 64c | 29.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…6d82backed No | 65c | 29.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…8639backed No | 65c | 29.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8064…8a15backed Yes | 56c | 26.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?this page
- Over $2M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?Yes won
- Over $60M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.