Token Launches · resolved market
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4f4393df1ae8a52991f691739f2bd1bb4f8aea24f34b19cd32895c0ad6a4a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbbe…17aabacked No | 2c | 1,477$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…be9dbacked No | 20c | 1,114$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.78 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +10.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 79c | 991.87$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.63 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 15c | 974.43$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 8c | 914.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 4c | 615.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed No | 6c | 431.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 318.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…2998backed No | 20c | 306.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 9c | 137.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…3627backed No | 18c | 124.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…6d82backed No | 15c | 117.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…908fbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…7853backed No | 17c | 69.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 58.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 78c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?this page
- Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $3M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $60M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
- Over $6M committed to the Pharos public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.