Fifa International · resolved market
Will Donald Trump be shown 3-5 times at the World Cup Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c4721bffdba3aad6b3bd45aa65b7fe37cd55d4a3fbe83e71f940585dcbfafe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 44c | 1,151$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.7 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15be…a62fbacked Yes | 50c | 874.49$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 700$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 54c | 626$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.98 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 528.46$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 413.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.71 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 45c | 342.65$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 55c | 298.87$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 53c | 225.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 188 | 43.6%82 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…dd3abacked Yes | 56c | 178.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 53c | 161.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 135$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 133$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…ee18backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 82.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 48c | 78.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 67c | 59.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 53c | 56.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 52.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 51.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…6d8dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 47.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…71f4backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 43.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 44c | 41.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 44c | 41.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 50c | 40.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…26c7backed Yes | 58c | 34.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 32.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -11.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 41c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…e897backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a867backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab7f…742bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 19.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump be shown 3-5 times at the World Cup Final?this page
- Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the World Cup Final?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 12 or more times at the World Cup Final?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 6-8 times at the World Cup Final?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 9-11 times at the World Cup Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.