Fifa International · resolved market
Will Donald Trump be shown 6-8 times at the World Cup Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27740ba4ceedf6634cbbf3861866bc56b66168ae0377e797dfc0aa54b5d9ff08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 16c | 4,621$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.64 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…5c98backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked Yes | 19c | 377.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 72c | 296.3$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 9c | 232.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 12c | 227.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…798abacked Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 176 | 32.4%57 W · 119 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…c023backed Yes | 11c | 199.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 275 | 43.6%120 W · 155 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 19c | 138.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 138.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4886…217ebacked Yes | 21c | 135.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 80c | 56.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 30c | 45.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump be shown 6-8 times at the World Cup Final?this page
- Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the World Cup Final?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 12 or more times at the World Cup Final?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 3-5 times at the World Cup Final?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 9-11 times at the World Cup Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.