Fifa International · resolved market
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79862a8f22a09bab26a97c13478a75ef5f004fefa1ef56458ed214395ac29cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 16c | 6,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a24bbacked Yes | 17c | 4,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2727backed No | 72c | 3,000$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.51 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 74c | 1,148$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.95 | 188 | 43.6%82 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Yes | 28c | 725.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 686.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 18c | 678.01$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -11.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 17c | 453.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 249 | 54.2%135 W · 114 L | +40.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 72c | 221.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed No | 79c | 215.85$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 202.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 19c | 156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed Yes | 18c | 152.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 18c | 143$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…e370backed Yes | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5280…c36dbacked Yes | 21c | 103.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 102.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…4747backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…ca58backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…a830backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 17c | 84.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 78c | 69.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…a55bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 61.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 77c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs BEL and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.