Fifa International · resolved market
Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93ba9e38ce68e46778b263e78ef86b643dff90b605854e81c55822781b48452d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71e9…bc32backed Yes | 39c | 11,454$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,013.71 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 61c | 8,761$5,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,344.39 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 62c | 4,245$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,627.1 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 70c | 3,383$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.9 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.33 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 51c | 3,054$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.99 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,618$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 49c | 1,533$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.08 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…4d4bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,529$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 58c | 1,034$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 188 | 43.6%82 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 999.98$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 41c | 872.79$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.22 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 43c | 730.55$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.22 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 50c | 630$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 564.27$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.14 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…6067backed Yes | 59c | 487.91$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 30c | 450$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 152 | 61.2%93 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 70c | 440$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.74 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 29c | 372.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.35 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed No | 65c | 299.98$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 53c | 195.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Yes | 77c | 168.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ed…00a1backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5280…c36dbacked Yes | 38c | 113.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 50c | 110.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f1b6backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 82.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 51c | 71.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899f…7fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 197 | 60.4%119 W · 78 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…c8cbbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…a830backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…65c6backed Yes | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…d149backed Yes | 38c | 39.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…4af8backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…f5bfbacked Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…6594backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -11.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…737fbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4e…52f2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…d9b5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…4bf5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…4d34backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…6dcbbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs BEL and ENG vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and ENG vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the semifinals be FRA vs ESP and NOR vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.