Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c2d07cee93a14cc532758660453c2765b6fb7dd0cf7b73025de1971f58c137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 25bps cutof No Change, 25bps cut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c11…529bbacked No Change | 3c | 10,950$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No Change | 2c | 3,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No Change | 4c | 2,628$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No Change | 1c | 2,152$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No Change | 5c | 1,760$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No Change | 12c | 1,266$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…9d9dbacked No Change | 3c | 1,184$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No Change | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No Change | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No Change | 8c | 314.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…a40dbacked No Change | 4c | 311.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No Change | 17c | 230$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No Change | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…d1c0backed No Change | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked No Change | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4d…c654backed No Change | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No Change | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda11…22b0backed No Change | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…97edbacked No Change | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.