Earnings · resolved market
Will IonQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ffa3af7728dc414b7d977639e66d8d64d47662f9197cbe8a64ac154d46a7327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1995…3575backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…395abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,031$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 8c | 630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 10c | 563.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 6c | 478.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…0db6backed Yes | 10c | 392.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 345.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…f7ecbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd309…d769backed Yes | 19c | 131.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145e…fdaebacked Yes | 21c | 126.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 95.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…f326backed Yes | 25c | 83.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 80c | 81.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 24c | 64.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.