Earnings · resolved market
Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01253576c511d929e5661dcad1d78f7009272fe82788a2c79534942337350b69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0197…cf7fbacked No | 72c | 953.52$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 57c | 436.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.45 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 33c | 389.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…6403backed Yes | 23c | 326.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 108.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…0a01backed Yes | 38c | 100.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 43c | 88.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…b737backed Yes | 33c | 85.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 42c | 81.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 62c | 77.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 40c | 68.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…9213backed Yes | 28c | 63.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f0…b2efbacked Yes | 37c | 58.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…ab41backed Yes | 21c | 56.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 46.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…a5f4backed No | 58c | 43.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 43.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 67c | 37.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…ad32backed Yes | 33c | 37.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 33c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 30.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 58c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.