Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f24a633d2cba7ab70188a82dceec9b476afe7034f7d488bc84b4b13aac9b183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 3,418$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.09 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 5c | 3,150$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 7c | 1,675$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 4c | 1,095$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 7c | 1,090$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 4c | 550$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 9c | 365.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…30eebacked No | 14c | 328.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 5c | 267$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 7c | 231$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 73c | 80.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?this page
- Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.