Earnings · resolved market
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27dc7db9777dc05bb6475c681bf5a7296c20b114c9493982f1cd37843e1feb7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 25c | 1,205$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.34 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed No | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 26c | 926.23$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.59 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc275…b3ccbacked Yes | 77c | 725.14$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 19c | 584.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 6c | 509.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…12adbacked No | 47c | 508.97$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 65c | 465.53$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 15c | 440$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 415.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 399.93$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 335.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 68c | 269.47$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 21c | 214.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 21c | 151.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…e885backed No | 19c | 151$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 19c | 143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 140.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 78c | 99.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 64c | 94.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…6c61backed Yes | 66c | 85.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 22c | 82.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb341…62f8backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…959cbacked No | 28c | 70.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…34d9backed Yes | 78c | 63.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 20c | 58.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 19c | 56.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 68c | 56.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 23c | 52.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…1983backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…6b9dbacked No | 33c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…7b04backed Yes | 68c | 41.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…ad32backed Yes | 78c | 35.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb302…1e58backed Yes | 80c | 34.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 78c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…55ccbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.