Commodities · resolved market
COMEX Silver Futures (SI=F) Up or Down on November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a39e26467d9bc4bc2b014de5584172e5e7bbf92ddf33f8a1b72269decd9319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Up | 65c | 478.26$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.98 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…c210backed Up | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…774bbacked Down | 50c | 399$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Down | 39c | 347.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6dda…ab1cbacked Down | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Down | 57c | 168.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Down | 35c | 162.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…11dcbacked Up | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…6e0fbacked Up | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Up | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Down | 23c | 58.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 35c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Up | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Up | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc760…1761backed Up | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked Down | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b6…28c3backed Down | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…0884backed Up | 67c | 43.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.