Chess · resolved market
Will Wesley So Win the Sinquefield Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2270fcc138b1a006e0adabdd1883cd3702df20da39c00b37c5874ef6dfc80a7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 57c | 993.6$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.24 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 29c | 977.59$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.11 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 47c | 689.6$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…df12backed Yes | 11c | 578.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed No | 43c | 575.5$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.47 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 42c | 521.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 66c | 511.18$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.14 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 65c | 427.7$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…4f89backed Yes | 58c | 420.54$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed No | 35c | 397.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 46c | 312.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 297.45$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 41c | 265$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 47c | 227.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 64c | 169.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 49c | 156.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Yes | 21c | 117.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 63c | 117.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 30c | 109$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 106.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 97.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…f4e9backed Yes | 23c | 92.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 84.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 25c | 83.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 82.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 81.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 75c | 61.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 36c | 60.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed No | 48c | 58.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 44c | 50.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…a520backed No | 66c | 44.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes | 44c | 38.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 37.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…1a29backed Yes | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 33.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…1256backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…8ee9backed Yes | 56c | 26.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wesley So Win the Sinquefield Cup?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Anish Giri Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Jorden Van Foreest Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Levon Aronian Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.