Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana Win the Sinquefield Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8f6d75d246fcf639c1821399f49a609194666ec75598598e12e926ae515a3d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 19c | 1,676$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.41 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 19c | 974.53$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked No | 77c | 831.88$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.76 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 79c | 723.41$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.16 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 29c | 613.01$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 76c | 438.82$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 358.97$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Yes | 21c | 290.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 19c | 265.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 226.48$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 201.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 75c | 195.51$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 77c | 172.01$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 170.66$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 126$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bc…fb20backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 77c | 97.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 70c | 83.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 70.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f16…84dabacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 49.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…f4e9backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 42.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 41.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 40.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136e…6414backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2c…a520backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 80c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana Win the Sinquefield Cup?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Anish Giri Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Jorden Van Foreest Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Levon Aronian Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Wesley So Win the Sinquefield Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.