Chess · resolved market
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu Win the Sinquefield Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945622ccfff3c08c3374e1055d84b0c48f22d734f1193993e734e52131746f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Yes | 15c | 2,493$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.68 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 31c | 2,317$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.93 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 57c | 1,977$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.1 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 42c | 1,623$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.85 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…2a28backed Yes | 24c | 1,456$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.05 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed No | 72c | 890.28$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 78c | 794.92$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 75c | 755.39$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.86 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 43c | 703.63$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.59 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 23c | 576.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked No | 67c | 393$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 32c | 340.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 318.93$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Yes | 19c | 307.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 65c | 267.72$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…6577backed Yes | 13c | 259.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…db2bbacked No | 64c | 210$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 57c | 166$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08e…1256backed Yes | 47c | 151.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Yes | 10c | 119.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 115$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 76c | 101.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 14c | 98.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…f9dabacked Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…1a29backed Yes | 24c | 79.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…ebc3backed Yes | 17c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…f4e9backed Yes | 26c | 77.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…999abacked Yes | 45c | 62.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…6ae6backed Yes | 32c | 61.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…757dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 66c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 33.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…3d45backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu Win the Sinquefield Cup?this page
- Will Alireza Firouzja Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Anish Giri Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Fabiano Caruana Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Jorden Van Foreest Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Levon Aronian Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Vincent Keymer Win the Sinquefield Cup?No won
- Will Wesley So Win the Sinquefield Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.