Earnings · resolved market
Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6fabd17f8925213468fd175cbc85df74a76e7152cc16188e5f2b426a4e1b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc92d…2339backed No | 24c | 4,638$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,080$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 9c | 999.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 18c | 867.13$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 3c | 766$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…36f6backed No | 13c | 620.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe1…5514backed No | 12c | 500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked No | 7c | 499.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 16c | 399.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed No | 14c | 382.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 33c | 368$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.56 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 11c | 364.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed No | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 17c | 324.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 13c | 306.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked No | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 10c | 299.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 8c | 299.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 7c | 264.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed No | 11c | 246.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed No | 10c | 228.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 76c | 225.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 11c | 222.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 214$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…5306backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 198.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…4ae5backed No | 11c | 178.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 79c | 164.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 16c | 148.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 10c | 142.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed Yes | 76c | 130.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 11c | 112.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…923bbacked No | 11c | 109.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked No | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 101.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…dbebbacked No | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f31…83cfbacked No | 12c | 86.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 71.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 65c | 61.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…5829backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…015dbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.