Commodities · resolved market
COMEX Gold Futures (GC=F) Up or Down on November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe25010ad8859ae804f3f6cab39cba221a75956b0ca9315e4996217f39d6fc69d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Up | 73c | 380.48$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Up | 42c | 309.51$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Up | 62c | 263.29$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…2191backed Down | 10c | 225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Up | 42c | 188.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd81…a8a8backed Down | 22c | 164.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Down | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…b786backed Up | 41c | 148.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Down | 61c | 139.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Down | 29c | 106.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 41c | 103.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64bc…a31ebacked Down | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Down | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…730dbacked Down | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Down | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Up | 61c | 82.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 22c | 81.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Up | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Down | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Up | 75c | 43.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…0884backed Up | 67c | 30.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.