Us Midterms · resolved market
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7250e8c1b519ed71c84ae578303a3604b3d28de049dc7415beab8f18a38da5d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 18c | 2,842$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.07 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 13c | 1,684$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 15c | 1,472$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.43 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 13c | 913$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 756.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 17c | 668.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…73d1backed Yes | 69c | 649.99$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 6c | 627.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 8c | 528.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…4791backed No | 15c | 510$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 14c | 487.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 16c | 413.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 72c | 348.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…5bbbbacked No | 21c | 320.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed No | 15c | 319.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 10c | 310.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 267.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 14c | 253.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…9688backed No | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 230.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…3651backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 193.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 16c | 167$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 6c | 161.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 159.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 22c | 138.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed No | 19c | 130.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 12c | 126.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 15c | 122$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 115.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 67c | 110.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 68c | 109.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…e43abacked No | 16c | 106.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…a907backed No | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 14c | 90.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 19c | 82.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 70.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 60.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 34c | 57.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 26c | 50.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 47.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 25c | 45.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 45.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 43.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 41c | 29.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 28.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 79c | 28.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 51c | 25.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 51c | 20.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?this page
- Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?No won
- Will Ethan Wechtaluk be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?No won
- Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.