Earnings · resolved market
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad23288742c6b586d2d6fc434ed083070aa1decfe92a6cd5a1fbc6644826b621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 48c | 3,230$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.07 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 51c | 475$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 49c | 408.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…6403backed Yes | 50c | 401.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 50c | 382.27$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.47 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 48c | 382$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 322.07$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed No | 51c | 299.67$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 47c | 247.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 55c | 244$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.47 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 58c | 222.27$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 204.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 180.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 129.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 105.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 42c | 81.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…0a99backed No | 53c | 59.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed Yes | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…7321backed No | 60c | 50.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…d361backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…34d9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 55c | 43.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3d…071cbacked No | 60c | 42.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 59c | 32.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…8d35backed No | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…b203backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 48c | 26.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…944bbacked No | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…7018backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…efa5backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.