TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb84d…ad8abacked Yes5c3,677$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes27c2,771$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.596937.7%26 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes52c1,582$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.3914849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes37c1,528$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.696443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…4f75backed No77c1,353$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.412055%11 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No3c1,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.661987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes25c1,182$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.6511628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No46c1,136$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.245133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No43c1,000$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4254325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002075%15 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes60c734.86$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.893234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes75c726.6$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae70…abfbbacked Yes22c706.67$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5502828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c86…c427backed No64c700$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4491080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe172…e8e0backed No46c655$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a24…2605backed No77c579$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd429…2affbacked No32c572.34$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes70c563$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.93063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+41.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x61ea…35acbacked Yes54c517.71$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505560%33 W · 22 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No23c492.25$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.591,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…8dfcbacked Yes13c401.53$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.921330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes76c396.67$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.322343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes66c343.54$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.121855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes47c339.84$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.9212348.8%60 W · 63 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes42c325.25$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.134325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…ef1ebacked Yes75c312.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed No35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+348.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No19c299.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5730839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked No10c288.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.552437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No53c283.01$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505442.6%23 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No21c267.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9226413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5769…316fbacked No40c247.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93f…445dbacked No12c224.64$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x734c…1d86backed No9c214.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201464.3%9 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.36per pick28cpaid+131.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked No45c211.13$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.997044.3%31 W · 39 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+33.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7f8…b9f6backed No10c209.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+43.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No33c207.41$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.619419.1%37 W · 157 L-35.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x1daa…e93dbacked Yes64c205.44$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+36.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x20dc…201dbacked Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e5…7134backed Yes65c192.56$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes59c170.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.58944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeeb…bf23backed Yes73c163.27$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes10c150$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1353815.8%6 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c147.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes47c146.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b55…fe84backed Yes69c145.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc88…1a6ebacked Yes72c144.95$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f4…ab39backed Yes70c138.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes28c130.85$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.65226.9%14 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6a…fd5cbacked Yes70c129.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes30c124.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4727322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b54…76eabacked No40c115$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1008…5700backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.491833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564856.3%27 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes44c98.22$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5811139.6%44 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No51c98.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3082…9446backed No22c84.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.531850%9 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked Yes76c72.94$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.52171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5aa8…5b69backed Yes69c72.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x463c…6347backed Yes63c71.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked No27c71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.374717%8 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7748…f69cbacked Yes68c67.72$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked No24c58.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed Yes20c57.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.972665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes71c52.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4616276.5%124 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes51c52.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.531931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc10b…e3e0backed No59c51.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No36c50.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5421815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x008a…8451backed Yes79c50.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.91060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+70.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.73026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112536%9 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53030%9 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d8f…c553backed Yes55c45.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.554100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc36a…050abacked Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.47771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes36c36.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.335028%14 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xff28…a560backed Yes76c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No71c31.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.424973.5%36 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e09…c25dbacked No67c30.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ca…f36fbacked Yes75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd4…c680backed No62c23.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.872744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2be…6a2abacked Yes76c20.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3f…4771backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e5…36cebacked Yes72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes79c19.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.919544.2%42 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe117…b4e7backed Yes79c17.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.591464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b30…100fbacked No69c15.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae50…b6febacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.