Commodities · resolved market
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x351b328835e3ff4d574ae836c9842a7dd72bad929d990098ce0976fb794fab9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb84d…ad8abacked Yes | 5c | 3,677$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,493.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 27c | 2,771$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.59 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,582$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.39 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 37c | 1,528$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.69 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed No | 77c | 1,353$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 25c | 1,182$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.65 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 46c | 1,136$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.24 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 43c | 1,000$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 60c | 734.86$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.89 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 75c | 726.6$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked Yes | 22c | 706.67$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 64c | 700$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e8e0backed No | 46c | 655$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed No | 77c | 579$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd429…2affbacked No | 32c | 572.34$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 70c | 563$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…35acbacked Yes | 54c | 517.71$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 492.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…8dfcbacked Yes | 13c | 401.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 76c | 396.67$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 66c | 343.54$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 47c | 339.84$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.92 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 42c | 325.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.13 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…ef1ebacked Yes | 75c | 312.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…3f07backed No | 35c | 300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 10c | 288.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 53c | 283.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 267.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…316fbacked No | 40c | 247.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 12c | 224.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734c…1d86backed No | 9c | 214.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.36per pick | 28cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 45c | 211.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…b9f6backed No | 10c | 209.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 207.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…e93dbacked Yes | 64c | 205.44$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…201dbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…7134backed Yes | 65c | 192.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 59c | 170.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…bf23backed Yes | 73c | 163.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 147.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes | 47c | 146.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…fe84backed Yes | 69c | 145.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…1a6ebacked Yes | 72c | 144.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…ab39backed Yes | 70c | 138.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 28c | 130.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…fd5cbacked Yes | 70c | 129.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 124.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 40c | 115$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1008…5700backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 44c | 98.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 22c | 84.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 76c | 72.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…5b69backed Yes | 69c | 72.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…6347backed Yes | 63c | 71.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…f69cbacked Yes | 68c | 67.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b4…48dabacked No | 24c | 58.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 20c | 57.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 52.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 51c | 52.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…e3e0backed No | 59c | 51.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 50.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…8451backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…c553backed Yes | 55c | 45.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…050abacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 36c | 36.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff28…a560backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 31.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked No | 67c | 30.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…f36fbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 62c | 23.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2be…6a2abacked Yes | 76c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…4771backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e5…36cebacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 79c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed Yes | 79c | 17.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 69c | 15.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…b6febacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?this page
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?Yes won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 400M by June 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.