Commodities · resolved market
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cfe69869eee679f5b750e0da0518b9d66156e200efa9407ddf25b18fee641f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbc1…c434backed Yes | 5c | 3,915$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,719.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,614.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,711$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed No | 2c | 2,600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,201$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.86 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 3c | 553.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…07efbacked No | 9c | 552.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 50c | 520.72$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 10c | 318.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked No | 50c | 318$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 10c | 249.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 66c | 200.22$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 34c | 171.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 69c | 118.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed No | 52c | 89.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed Yes | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 67.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes | 48c | 61.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 75c | 54.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6887…408bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked No | 67c | 22.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 67c | 17.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?this page
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?Yes won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 400M by June 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.