Commodities · resolved market
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718135d518c397ffca20bc77405eca43e439b8958c286149992dafe4f82dfcf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,575$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…9dc8backed Yes | 3c | 4,421$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,254$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,085$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 807.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 13c | 807.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…8dfcbacked Yes | 4c | 566.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…f69cbacked Yes | 4c | 292.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…af94backed Yes | 53c | 168.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 59c | 95.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed No | 60c | 76.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 58.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…aeaabacked No | 74c | 47.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e09…c25dbacked No | 61c | 32.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 40c | 30.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 74c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5?this page
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?Yes won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5?Yes won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 400M by June 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.