Lol · resolved market
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58172b275e21959b7304162e9efe7ff279f57fb6159bf0ee6e113784b5876a3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x515e…8309backed No | 78c | 925.9$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Yes | 22c | 902$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 495 | 49.1%243 W · 252 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…f1f3backed No | 80c | 565.85$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 248 | 48.4%120 W · 128 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Yes | 22c | 466.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 698 | 41.8%292 W · 406 L | +46.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Yes | 20c | 259.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,453 | 43.4%630 W · 823 L | +106.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…983fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 428 | 35%150 W · 278 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3dd…975fbacked Yes | 9c | 199.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed No | 65c | 121.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +76%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…b0a7backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…9d70backed Yes | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…00ecbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…9418backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…9e1abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…767cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 101 | 40.6%41 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed No | 64c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 600 | 53.2%319 W · 281 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.