Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich Win the Treble?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87556e546c33dc5aac30fdda123531308fd44c81f44490c63aaa49b6421a4c2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 64c | 1,225$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 58c | 1,007$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.07 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 46c | 838.37$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Yes | 26c | 708.04$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 68c | 683.36$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 63c | 665.98$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.19 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 642.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 28c | 570.62$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…0f8fbacked Yes | 50c | 500.16$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 74c | 500$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…4636backed Yes | 42c | 352.79$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e43…ac6dbacked Yes | 33c | 335.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…f7afbacked Yes | 34c | 334.05$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…d076backed Yes | 31c | 308$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 32c | 299.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed Yes | 20c | 278.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…a348backed Yes | 35c | 274$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9dd0backed Yes | 33c | 242.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 72c | 236.16$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…c085backed Yes | 31c | 227.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 223$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 21c | 197.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 71c | 169.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 34c | 162.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 71c | 155$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…f015backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 26c | 108.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 67c | 80.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…52dabacked Yes | 32c | 78.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb98…ca99backed Yes | 35c | 74.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Yes | 34c | 73.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…51e9backed Yes | 35c | 70.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e15…a116backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…7b98backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 63.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f38…b578backed Yes | 30c | 61.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f6…fe3dbacked Yes | 35c | 55.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 29c | 51.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Yes | 33c | 44.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5c…d35cbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 38.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…bdccbacked Yes | 29c | 37.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…ee40backed Yes | 38c | 36.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 34.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 65c | 29.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed No | 68c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 78c | 16.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 67c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.