China Taiwan · resolved market
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9dd25dc61b8ac4977abf14ab3a419ccfe61bff2afca37d3654809a96378bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 8c | 2,518$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,707$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,163$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…f109backed Yes | 3c | 1,030$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb352…fbeabacked Yes | 7c | 965$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0680…9e57backed Yes | 4c | 952$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe609…6322backed Yes | 7c | 949.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0771…32b7backed Yes | 7c | 947$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…385fbacked Yes | 3c | 940$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…d336backed Yes | 4c | 930$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a1…c2d8backed Yes | 3c | 928$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8f…c84ebacked Yes | 7c | 925.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8f…a405backed Yes | 7c | 924.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…8635backed Yes | 3c | 924$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e23…05cabacked Yes | 7c | 922.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…ad15backed Yes | 7c | 922.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x603d…bd71backed Yes | 7c | 915$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…3eaabacked Yes | 7c | 915$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…a86fbacked Yes | 4c | 912$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e54…c6f4backed Yes | 5c | 910$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dc…aec2backed Yes | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5d…da31backed Yes | 5c | 910$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…51f9backed Yes | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fcbacked Yes | 7c | 904$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…f086backed Yes | 7c | 904$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…a3cbbacked Yes | 5c | 900$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…ac28backed Yes | 5c | 900$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x704d…de12backed Yes | 5c | 889$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e6…0ebebacked Yes | 5c | 889$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d77…262ebacked Yes | 5c | 886$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…2ee2backed Yes | 5c | 886$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…a8abbacked Yes | 4c | 881$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…cd7bbacked Yes | 4c | 881$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…574dbacked Yes | 4c | 875$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…e01dbacked Yes | 4c | 875$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec4…21a1backed Yes | 4c | 858$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…71e1backed Yes | 5c | 857.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 5c | 817.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 814.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 774.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 749.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…aefebacked Yes | 4c | 735$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…1000backed Yes | 4c | 735$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…13acbacked Yes | 4c | 713$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…a3b5backed Yes | 4c | 713$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…8bf1backed Yes | 4c | 671$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 7c | 625.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 533$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 440.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 40c | 409.19$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 345.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 7c | 245.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…f218backed No | 74c | 235.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 56c | 53.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +335.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 32.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | -11.8wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.