Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x244f64c4312b5b07e0613590598e49e96e5d89c433fe4d24bf834c1d68a5f5c4

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,626 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0380…073dbacked No	2c	2,342$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.98	656	51.7%339 W · 317 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes	67c	2,091$1,406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$684.63	252	44.8%113 W · 139 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3022…59c1backed Yes	79c	1,947$1,544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.52	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	25c	1,435$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.58	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	25c	1,204$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.3	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No	31c	1,159$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.38	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76b…c054backed No	27c	1,118$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.66	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	21c	1,104$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.71	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No	11c	1,063$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.14	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b60…85e0backed Yes	74c	1,043$776 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.33	83	41%34 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No	28c	1,038$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.6	88	44.3%39 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	3c	903.12$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No	27c	749.99$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.5	119	45.4%54 W · 65 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	69c	700$483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217	69	65.2%45 W · 24 L	+9.6wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+49.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2567…fc9dbacked Yes	74c	679.45$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.45	123	49.6%61 W · 62 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	2c	577$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	28c	503.18$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.89	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes	72c	500$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Yes	72c	500$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	104	71.2%74 W · 30 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	25c	500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes	73c	410.96$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.96	165	52.1%86 W · 79 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8b0…cc4bbacked Yes	72c	350$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	111	65.8%73 W · 38 L	+15.3wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	69c	328.87$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.95	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	69c	294.68$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.52	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes	63c	282$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.26	225	50.7%114 W · 111 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes	64c	260.43$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.36	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes	66c	259.41$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.39	184	60.9%112 W · 72 L	+13.9wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No	21c	253.25$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.29	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb623…476dbacked Yes	72c	207.11$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.11	89	41.6%37 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed No	37c	179.64$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.47	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	73c	169.93$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.61	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No	36c	169.64$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.77	166	46.4%77 W · 89 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked No	29c	168.31$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.41	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf33…b5f8backed No	35c	150$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	200	17%34 W · 166 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f6…bf5abacked Yes	68c	141.97$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.75	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed Yes	74c	134.7$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.33	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes	76c	132.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.19	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f75…ce35backed Yes	74c	130$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.7	214	39.7%85 W · 129 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fbc…186dbacked Yes	74c	125$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Yes	62c	123.87$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.07	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked No	13c	121$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	206	52.9%109 W · 97 L	+14.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes	74c	114.7$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.82	98	51%50 W · 48 L	+8.3wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed No	22c	113.55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.76	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	38c	108.91$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.48	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	20c	105.74$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed No	36c	101$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	199	58.3%116 W · 83 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed Yes	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-9.0wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4779…d24bbacked No	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c12…91fcbacked Yes	76c	97.59$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.12	63	71.4%45 W · 18 L	+9.4wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	39c	92.5$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.38	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	26c	87.84$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.64	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d6babacked No	28c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd5…78d8backed Yes	74c	67.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8371…5f47backed Yes	74c	67.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	76	50%38 W · 38 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	34c	60.76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed No	25c	58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb078…289ebacked Yes	78c	57.69$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.69	207	56%116 W · 91 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	69c	56.83$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.73	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xac2d…a9c4backed No	19c	55.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	69c	55$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.05	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No	33c	51.47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8647…d870backed Yes	73c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce77…86c4backed Yes	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…e399backed Yes	74c	49.61$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+36.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	28c	49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	175	58.9%103 W · 72 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	26c	48.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x08ab…cbc4backed No	37c	48.13$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d82…3a1bbacked Yes	74c	46.3$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	74c	45.91$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.94	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaf…7d88backed Yes	73c	45$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.15	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	-30%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d14…1e1bbacked Yes	73c	41.1$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb326…d18bbacked No	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cee…0cc9backed No	26c	39.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes	66c	37.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.7	81	61.7%50 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	33c	36.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed Yes	76c	36.32$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.83	109	66.1%72 W · 37 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…0035backed No	33c	35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	55	40%22 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked No	34c	30.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…fec1backed Yes	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+3.0wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff17…844cbacked Yes	74c	27.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…6e05backed Yes	75c	26.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ff…70b7backed Yes	70c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	73c	20.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed No	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes	69c	19.23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.96	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Will Canada finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Will Switzerland finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event