Movies · resolved market
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3167f7e45b0403a4e25a4db1533d75fe414c0b77ac905b28e9197267c1891773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 51c | 8,462$4,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,141.25 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…7d4abacked No | 0c | 5,403$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed No | 0c | 4,423$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…8619backed No | 1c | 4,177$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 16c | 2,687$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.15 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 3c | 2,656$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 7c | 2,037$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.33 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 19c | 1,723$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.11 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 13c | 1,700$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.43 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed No | 2c | 1,691$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,072$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 1,002$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.35 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 19c | 800$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes | 29c | 746.44$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.45 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 71c | 501.59$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 71c | 499.99$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.86 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 2c | 491.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 19c | 460.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 405.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.03 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 22c | 382.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 7c | 378.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.79 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 41c | 368.71$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.91 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 348$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.57 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed No | 10c | 340$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 335.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 47c | 322.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.39 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 12c | 306.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.29 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 40c | 296$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 289.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…4509backed Yes | 13c | 256.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…b0b9backed No | 20c | 252.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 46c | 250.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 246.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 72c | 230$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…7dadbacked No | 68c | 228.25$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 9c | 226.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.06 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Yes | 79c | 210.51$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 37c | 205$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 60c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…6babbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes | 10c | 193.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.04 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 186$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 13c | 147.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…2a8cbacked No | 10c | 144.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed Yes | 42c | 127.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 53c | 122.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 55c | 117.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked No | 21c | 77.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed No | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed No | 27c | 70.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 44c | 69.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…57dcbacked Yes | 79c | 63.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 55.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 34c | 44.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…25c8backed Yes | 79c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?this page
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 53m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 59m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 59m and 65m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.