Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf43d99c0b796e0e5226dffa31c71c9fab943e3f79c0182c144eea93dc6b77ae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 11c | 10,000$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,870.22 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 14c | 2,435$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.43 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 16c | 2,367$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.82 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +11.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed No | 35c | 2,030$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 15c | 2,023$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.13 | 368 | 34.2%126 W · 242 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 51c | 1,849$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.94 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked No | 12c | 1,807$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 77c | 1,800$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.57 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 1,662$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 61c | 1,289$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.4 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 12c | 1,274$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.62 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 22c | 1,238$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.24 | 255 | 36.5%93 W · 162 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 14c | 1,195$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.85 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…5e49backed Yes | 48c | 1,092$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 991.27$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.19 | 171 | 32.2%55 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 13c | 932.24$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.05 | 158 | 56.3%89 W · 69 L | +20.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 14c | 909.86$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.93 | 188 | 42%79 W · 109 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 79c | 751.6$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.88 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 45c | 696$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 677.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.65 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 63c | 647.61$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.57 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 76c | 528.7$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.96 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Yes | 19c | 517$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 75c | 486$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 30c | 468.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.52 | 214 | 31.3%67 W · 147 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 367$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.78 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 70c | 362.06$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.92 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 31c | 359.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.51 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 26c | 343.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.26 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 78c | 333.13$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.56 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 19c | 324.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.42 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes | 61c | 324$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 53c | 323.01$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.27 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 14c | 318.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.92 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41b…e178backed Yes | 52c | 308.25$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 12c | 299.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.97 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 295$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 50c | 283.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 269.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.61 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 79c | 264.81$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.2 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 42c | 258.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 247 | 47.8%118 W · 129 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 251$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 203 | 42.4%86 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 47c | 237.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 237$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 54c | 235.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 11c | 227$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.03 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…d4adbacked Yes | 21c | 218$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 12c | 215.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 56c | 209.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 13c | 208.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 190.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 490 | 36.7%180 W · 310 L | -35.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 190$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 48c | 181.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 34c | 179.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 127 | 23.6%30 W · 97 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 169.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 167.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 31c | 167$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 20c | 166.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 72c | 155.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 184 | 29.9%55 W · 129 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 24c | 155$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 48c | 147.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 19c | 143.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 141.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 45c | 136.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…7fc8backed No | 12c | 131.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…8fa1backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef9…cb4dbacked Yes | 58c | 123.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 24c | 119.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 20c | 114.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 114$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 347 | 29.1%101 W · 246 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 38c | 114$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 268 | 62.7%168 W · 100 L | +27.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…c6a1backed No | 21c | 112.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 48c | 111.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 15c | 110$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 55c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d8…8f7cbacked No | 46c | 107$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…76c5backed No | 39c | 103.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 63c | 100.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 99.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 97.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 96.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 19c | 94.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x650b…ebc3backed Yes | 72c | 93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 87.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 43c | 87.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 166 | 34.3%57 W · 109 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 52c | 86.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 20c | 85.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?this page
- Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
- Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
- Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Yes won
- Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
- Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.