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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4488…e319backed No11c10,000$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,870.226445.3%29 W · 35 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed No14c2,435$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.436041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+84.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No16c2,367$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.825038%19 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes2c2,150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.45750.9%29 W · 28 L+11.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+82.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd48f…2132backed No35c2,030$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No15c2,023$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.1336834.2%126 W · 242 L-1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes51c1,849$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.948514.1%12 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb7e…28ddbacked No12c1,807$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,595.7540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+101.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes77c1,800$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.577844.9%35 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No20c1,662$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.231540%6 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes61c1,289$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.413946%64 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No12c1,274$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.625129.4%15 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No22c1,238$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.2425536.5%93 W · 162 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+69.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No14c1,195$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.856940.6%28 W · 41 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa22…5e49backed Yes48c1,092$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No13c991.27$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.1917132.2%55 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No13c932.24$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.0515856.3%89 W · 69 L+20.1wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+18.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No14c909.86$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.9318842%79 W · 109 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes79c751.6$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.881764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes45c696$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No28c677.88$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.656847.1%32 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes63c647.61$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.575735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes76c528.7$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.967349.3%36 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8604…fd3abacked Yes19c517$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.811435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…e4e0backed No75c486$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.61450%2 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes30c468.05$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2115945.3%72 W · 87 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No12c400$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.5221431.3%67 W · 147 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes40c375$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No29c367$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.782850%14 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes70c362.06$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.922931%9 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No31c359.85$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5113551.1%69 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No26c343.6$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.2611328.3%32 W · 81 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-6.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes78c333.13$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.5623060.9%140 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No19c324.08$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.425844.8%26 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes61c324$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.173046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+95.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No53c323.01$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.274325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No14c318.55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.929748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe41b…e178backed Yes52c308.25$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-76.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No12c299.96$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.979135.2%32 W · 59 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No25c295$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.210644.3%47 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes50c283.23$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.089017.8%16 W · 74 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No19c269.79$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6120939.2%82 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked Yes79c264.81$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.24173.2%30 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes42c258.01$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8324747.8%118 W · 129 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No23c251$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1520342.4%86 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes22c250$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.194136.6%15 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+140.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes47c237.42$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.73476.5%26 W · 8 L+6.6wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+30.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No51c237$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1311839%46 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No54c235.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.283256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x321e…9292backed No55c230$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.52560%15 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No11c227$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.034450%22 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…d4adbacked Yes21c218$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No12c215.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.136241.9%26 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes56c209.44$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7329134.4%100 W · 191 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No13c208.43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18111224.1%27 W · 85 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1603920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c190.04$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4649036.7%180 W · 310 L-35.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No35c190$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.612238.5%47 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes48c181.13$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.14316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No34c179.24$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4812723.6%30 W · 97 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No52c169.69$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.265752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No15c167.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0112344.7%55 W · 68 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes31c167$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1622633.2%75 W · 151 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ae0…b747backed Yes20c166.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.72634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes72c155.98$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2118429.9%55 W · 129 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed No24c155$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.534555.6%25 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes48c147.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.392458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes19c143.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No35c141.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.836440.1%146 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes45c136.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.868739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…99e6backed No15c133.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.331435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…7fc8backed No12c131.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No12c130$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.47341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024e…8fa1backed No77c130$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes22c130$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.65444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef9…cb4dbacked Yes58c123.53$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No24c119.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.884148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No20c114.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.115137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes52c114$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8434729.1%101 W · 246 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes38c114$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8326862.7%168 W · 100 L+27.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd5e…c6a1backed No21c112.33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+142.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes48c111.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.074436.4%16 W · 28 L-7.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-46.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked No15c110$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid+39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No55c110$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d8…8f7cbacked No46c107$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No63c105$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.249338.7%36 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf258…76c5backed No39c103.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes63c100.89$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.575052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875850%29 W · 29 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+55.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479553.7%51 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No14c99.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0516325.8%42 W · 121 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No73c97.82$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.266443.8%28 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No56c96.26$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4773615.1%111 W · 625 L-113.3wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-65.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked Yes19c94.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.175630.4%17 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x650b…ebc3backed Yes72c93$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed Yes37c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.93548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No79c87.65$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.26645.5%30 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes43c87.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7916634.3%57 W · 109 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No52c86.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1612640.5%51 W · 75 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes20c85.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.144344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.