Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036154c1906c2abd61a65bc585832e0ef8bdc7795cd05b56a1b5bb96c01e3744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 3c | 2,284$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…d8d6backed Yes | 4c | 881.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 13c | 624.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 585.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 278 | 22.3%62 W · 216 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Yes | 15c | 517$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 424.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 204 | 4.9%10 W · 194 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 392.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 127 | 23.6%30 W · 97 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 376.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 543 | 12%65 W · 478 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 324.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 368 | 34.2%126 W · 242 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 273.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 171.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 291 | 34.4%100 W · 191 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 19c | 151.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…fb65backed Yes | 15c | 144$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 139.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 199 | 11.1%22 W · 177 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 15c | 134.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 20c | 130.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 123.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 80c | 117.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 18c | 99.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 16c | 88.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 87.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 736 | 15.1%111 W · 625 L | -113.3wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 12c | 83.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…0743backed Yes | 15c | 78.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 15c | 71.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 16c | 62.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 175 | 20.6%36 W · 139 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed No | 69c | 56.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 80c | 50.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 188 | 42%79 W · 109 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?this page
- Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
- Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
- Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Yes won
- Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
- Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.