TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Timofey Skatov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Radu Albotof Radu Albot, Timofey Skatov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a30…34b1backed Radu Albot74c8,084$5,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.7316961.5%104 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Timofey Skatov78c5,130$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00050458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Radu Albot21c3,760$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.766444.6%296 W · 368 L+29.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Radu Albot62c3,207$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.8762956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Radu Albot25c3,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.953,86234.9%1,348 W · 2,514 L+92.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Timofey Skatov80c2,373$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,891.171,82853.1%971 W · 857 L-44.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Radu Albot19c2,320$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.928,72636.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L-187.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Timofey Skatov40c1,475$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.712,07944.4%923 W · 1,156 L-52.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Timofey Skatov30c1,426$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.284,88238.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L-17.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Radu Albot36c1,387$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.0562061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Timofey Skatov42c1,332$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.242,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed Radu Albot22c1,238$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.650442.7%215 W · 289 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Timofey Skatov80c1,127$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.056,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Timofey Skatov24c1,080$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.046,68536.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L-96.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Timofey Skatov75c1,027$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.321,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Radu Albot25c999.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.9985634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Timofey Skatov58c974.57$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.615,28856.5%2,989 W · 2,299 L+231.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Radu Albot24c938$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.883,54142.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L-44.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Timofey Skatov48c919.82$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.588,39642.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L-162.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Timofey Skatov76c890$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.445457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Radu Albot21c848.52$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.6957321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Timofey Skatov45c777.33$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.574,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Radu Albot71c752.2$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.494,87541.5%2,023 W · 2,852 L-77.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f70…ce77backed Timofey Skatov13c730$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971656.3%9 W · 7 L+7.2wins+0.45per pick11cpaid+334.9%equal weight69+0.18 edge/pick
0x0206…bf76backed Timofey Skatov78c637.54$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.284763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Timofey Skatov21c625$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.57828.2%22 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+31.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Radu Albot27c580.13$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.7411,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Timofey Skatov38c533.54$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.5211141.4%46 W · 65 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Timofey Skatov19c525$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.51089.3%10 W · 98 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Timofey Skatov78c523.29$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.663,18748.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L-46.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Timofey Skatov33c504$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2445235.8%162 W · 290 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Timofey Skatov33c504$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.244339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Timofey Skatov33c504$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2448235.9%173 W · 309 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Timofey Skatov33c504$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2469438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Timofey Skatov34c500$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16939941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Timofey Skatov30c453.04$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7256827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Radu Albot40c423.56$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.656,41154.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L+283.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7932…5b38backed Timofey Skatov76c407.68$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8436157.1%206 W · 155 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc314…6a46backed Timofey Skatov5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018410.9%20 W · 164 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcff0…fa1abacked Timofey Skatov16c389.47$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.951752.9%9 W · 8 L+7.1wins+0.42per pick11cpaid+342.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Timofey Skatov72c377.26$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3326435.6%94 W · 170 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Radu Albot27c360.97$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.1858745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Radu Albot34c354.12$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9734748.1%167 W · 180 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Radu Albot42c328.66$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4265246.3%302 W · 350 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Radu Albot65c320.36$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5344349%217 W · 226 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad5…780ebacked Radu Albot23c305.25$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.561338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x845a…37acbacked Timofey Skatov18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick11cpaid+184.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x33d5…7146backed Timofey Skatov18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541060%6 W · 4 L+4.8wins+0.48per pick12cpaid+538.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x94ba…001dbacked Timofey Skatov18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544932.7%16 W · 33 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+131.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xe9f6…55aabacked Timofey Skatov18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544930.6%15 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.21per pick10cpaid+156.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x65e5…0cadbacked Timofey Skatov18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541030%3 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+172.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed Timofey Skatov18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543542.9%15 W · 20 L+10.7wins+0.31per pick12cpaid+212%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Timofey Skatov33c292$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.021,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Timofey Skatov50c291.67$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0266834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Timofey Skatov75c263.16$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.371,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Timofey Skatov64c262.92$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2719052.1%99 W · 91 L-12.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Radu Albot78c255.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.826749.3%33 W · 34 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Timofey Skatov75c239.72$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Radu Albot24c238.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9285249.6%423 W · 429 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Timofey Skatov33c237.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5299244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Radu Albot28c232.14$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.1413830.4%42 W · 96 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Radu Albot54c223.24$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9333352.6%175 W · 158 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Radu Albot52c217.86$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10514835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Timofey Skatov75c202.07$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.542125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb002…103dbacked Radu Albot36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12836852.7%194 W · 174 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf39…3394backed Radu Albot64c196.86$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0133462.6%209 W · 125 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Timofey Skatov75c156$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.581,80640.9%739 W · 1,067 L-31.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Radu Albot37c154.33$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8785624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Timofey Skatov18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274617.4%8 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Radu Albot47c145.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.611,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e6…8fabbacked Timofey Skatov70c143.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Radu Albot24c133.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.631,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba5…4e0ebacked Timofey Skatov75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016055%88 W · 72 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b35…bfa7backed Timofey Skatov75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028265.6%185 W · 97 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked Radu Albot64c130$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.440527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9be8…ed26backed Timofey Skatov76c129.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.28366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab0…0a44backed Timofey Skatov72c122$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.843675%27 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+23.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Timofey Skatov38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Radu Albot24c119.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1478953%418 W · 371 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Timofey Skatov54c117.28$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.756,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Timofey Skatov26c114$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.754,58448.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L+35.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fc…b09fbacked Radu Albot13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.456758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e04…7127backed Timofey Skatov79c95.03$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.961758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Timofey Skatov74c94.59$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7038262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Radu Albot66c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.911,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Radu Albot24c90$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.12,21242.9%948 W · 1,264 L+34.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb914…e271backed Timofey Skatov78c85.9$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Radu Albot65c85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.835187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Radu Albot24c75.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.131,23544.9%554 W · 681 L-5.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7d…b743backed Timofey Skatov75c72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c25…6bbcbacked Radu Albot22c71.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.693043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Radu Albot36c62.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.272,40451.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Radu Albot27c60.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2227755.6%154 W · 123 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed Timofey Skatov78c60.43$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1470456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf26f…8f93backed Timofey Skatov18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83619.4%7 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+57.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef3a…dc6bbacked Timofey Skatov59c59.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356952.2%36 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b3…bf0dbacked Radu Albot79c54.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2616873.8%124 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick73cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Radu Albot26c54.23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.171,83057.7%1,056 W · 774 L+105.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7607…85debacked Timofey Skatov75c53.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8910851.9%56 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef0…d45bbacked Radu Albot19c53.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0821259.4%126 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.