Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump admin declassify foreign election interference files by July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x977587cb8a0767ae296114d1c3760bca59d7c10432f8977872f663b4e8b479d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0096…de43backed Yes | 53c | 745.48$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 560$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabe2…6157backed Yes | 61c | 489.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 54c | 473.88$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.98 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 413.15$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 58c | 327.88$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 6c | 254.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 45c | 200.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 56c | 186.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…698bbacked Yes | 77c | 163.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 36c | 161$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 56c | 98.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 66.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…991fbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…67dcbacked No | 28c | 39.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…a5a8backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.