World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7378592632d69bc5b3017d4aac8943c0658df8da38dbae044a83ccfc56313e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 44c | 2,569$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.21 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 12c | 1,405$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 709.51$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 68c | 641.86$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.48 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 473.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 448.64$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.62 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed No | 70c | 445.42$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.62 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 390.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.1 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 70c | 350.54$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.37 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 314.48$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.75 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 48c | 303.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 27c | 301.73$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.73 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 292.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 264.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.84 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 36c | 252.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.35 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…d4f5backed No | 7c | 233.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 23c | 231.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.25 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 60c | 216.42$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed No | 10c | 205.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 202.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 78c | 201.29$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 7c | 201.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.52 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 183.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 181.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 175$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 167$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…ec59backed No | 9c | 165.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 69c | 157.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 155$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4500…25a3backed No | 10c | 151.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 72c | 149.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 14c | 140.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 79c | 137.42$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 37c | 135.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 134.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 43c | 131.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 127.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 117.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 116.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 30c | 112.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 74c | 109.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 103.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 101.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 101.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 20c | 98.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 97.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 97.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 48c | 96.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 95.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 74c | 94.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…2f22backed No | 17c | 90.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 74c | 84.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 29c | 84.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 84.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 31c | 83.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 83.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 63c | 78.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 78.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 23c | 78.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 74.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 65c | 74.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 22c | 68.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 19c | 67.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 25c | 66.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 30c | 66.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 65.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…0876backed Yes | 28c | 58.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +263.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 58.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 55.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 51.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 51.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 70c | 50.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 49.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 35c | 42.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 27c | 41.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 25c | 40.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 30c | 37.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…8b24backed Yes | 65c | 36.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 74c | 36.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 34.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 46c | 32.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 32.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 31.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 30.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.