World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1deb80a4b52a062977517b68822195aa3cfec271a1ba831ac4c0547dee9d56e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 679.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 464.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 70c | 400.1$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 25c | 357.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 30c | 356.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 25c | 310.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 279.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 22c | 276.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 255.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 29c | 245$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 197.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 18c | 169.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…7006backed Yes | 7c | 156.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 24c | 139.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 11c | 138.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 124.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 116.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 77cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 22c | 99.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 99.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 98.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 18c | 85.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 79.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 77.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 72.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 17c | 67.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 63.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 60.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 59.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 56.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 26c | 55.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 55.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 50.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 40.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 80c | 39.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 36.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 75c | 29.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 73c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…a796backed No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 75c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 75c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.