World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c63f78ab584880f84200382f5b7d50426b7a0b744d0a31f5e670424f1446259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 883.86$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.72 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 647.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 478.67$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.95 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 46c | 436.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 41c | 434.6$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 433.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 413$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.81 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 373.36$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.41 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 349.05$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.76 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 312.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.31 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 297.1$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 39c | 253.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 61c | 251.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 240.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 40c | 226.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 224.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 35c | 166.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 21c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 157.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 156$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 152.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 152.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 147.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 54c | 138.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 126$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 114.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 111.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 107.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 59c | 100.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 69c | 100.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 43c | 93.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 58c | 92.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 91.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 77c | 90.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 28c | 88.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 84.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 53c | 79.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 76.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 61c | 76.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 72.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 68.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 17c | 66.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 63.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 26c | 60.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 45c | 56.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 41c | 52.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 42c | 51.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 51.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 48.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 48.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 58c | 47.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 56c | 44.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 44.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 40c | 44.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 57c | 44.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 42c | 43.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…5025backed Yes | 62c | 41.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 41.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 62c | 40.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 32c | 39.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 39.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 41c | 37.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 37.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…3c24backed Yes | 39c | 36.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…9a53backed Yes | 42c | 35.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…4183backed No | 43c | 34.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 40c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 43c | 34.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 34.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 40c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 45c | 33.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 59c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 38c | 33.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 31.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 42c | 31.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 31.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 39c | 30.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.