Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f26187d7459a50e69881a10ec6b08c4c0ec028ad026de8318378959aed6b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 61c | 1,523$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.72 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 46c | 824.96$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.02 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed No | 40c | 507.01$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.68 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…fbecbacked No | 72c | 477.24$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 54c | 428.19$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 55c | 369.5$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.06 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 20c | 338.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.08 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 51c | 294.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 27c | 272.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 50c | 258.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 228.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed Yes | 58c | 200.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 196.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 28c | 194.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 61c | 183$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 61c | 177.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 35c | 175$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 30c | 169.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 163.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…505abacked No | 40c | 158$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 156.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 36c | 151$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 55c | 141.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed Yes | 61c | 133.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…f660backed Yes | 28c | 130.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 123.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 123.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 43c | 103.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e21…a0d4backed Yes | 48c | 98.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 46c | 97.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…188fbacked No | 43c | 83.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 55c | 72.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 44c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 42c | 71.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 70.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…6761backed Yes | 58c | 67.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 36c | 65.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed Yes | 35c | 65.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…1af6backed No | 35c | 57.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +275.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 58c | 43.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 41.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9c…325bbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…cc05backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Yes | 73c | 32.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f54…82fcbacked Yes | 64c | 21.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa706…42f0backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?this page
- Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?No won
- Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?No won
- Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.