Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae8b5b3c2f5316fd6007b1faee1f3ad0d715f4fd3b0f83b3b0751c21292cfb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 47c | 529.21$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.55 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 26c | 416.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.15 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 18c | 329$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.37 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 77c | 298.84$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 9c | 254.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.31 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 71c | 224$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 204$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 62c | 199$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 8c | 179.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.95 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…f660backed Yes | 29c | 173.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 166.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 163.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed No | 74c | 155$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 32c | 145.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 30c | 115.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 10c | 114.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 106.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 21c | 104.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 97.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 90.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 22c | 81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 56c | 78.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 41.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…36d0backed No | 68c | 36.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 33.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 37c | 32.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 57c | 22.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 18.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?this page
- Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?No won
- Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?No won
- Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.