World Politics · resolved market
Will Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fac7141a4f515362ee7cb4b1b4fb1461068e0e3f76623de228a493f7a54de6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Yes | 1c | 4,107$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 65c | 2,505$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.9 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 5c | 1,494$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 24c | 646.55$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 21c | 620.48$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…e8e6backed No | 79c | 612$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 3c | 567.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 4c | 533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +8.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 14c | 522.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 388.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…69b7backed Yes | 24c | 284.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 270.29$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 260.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 9c | 245.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 21c | 161.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 157.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 109$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 109$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 101.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 14c | 95.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 88.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…564cbacked Yes | 42c | 51.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 39c | 43.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 14.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?this page
- Will Caley McDonald win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?No won
- Will Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.