World Politics · resolved market
Will Caley McDonald win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcea9e8f8d5483510aa22523984ebb610df2c508f4a3a9b439508a1960bd5d01b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 75c | 1,353$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.13 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 650.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes | 3c | 641.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 27c | 614.79$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 485$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 22c | 442.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Yes | 4c | 427.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 402.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 24c | 359.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 69c | 301.22$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.19 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…69b7backed Yes | 27c | 300.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 28c | 253$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked Yes | 32c | 173.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 23c | 170.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 74c | 154.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dac…423abacked Yes | 34c | 148.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 108.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 94.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 75c | 81.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 69c | 77.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 74c | 75.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 74c | 68.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 61.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 52.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 42.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 64c | 38.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 31.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 65c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Caley McDonald win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?this page
- Will Robert Mitchell win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?No won
- Will Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.