TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05a4…1e85backed No3c5,085$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes31c2,859$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.549850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa12d…e4f4backed Yes53c978.16$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c485$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No39c448.71$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8510646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No8c436$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.964753.2%25 W · 22 L+8.9wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x721f…891ebacked Yes61c413.28$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No46c408.33$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes53c373.06$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.064560%27 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes35c360.75$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.153432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed No59c336.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.848854.5%48 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No26c298.5$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9936055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c291.2$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No48c274.21$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c270.29$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed No46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c222.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.981,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes42c206$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4813444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No16c202.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8923551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes41c182.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.324637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c1…89f7backed Yes55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1073…4811backed Yes57c176.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No7c172.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1318348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked Yes47c170$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.15554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No53c165.9$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.341650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes49c161$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes10c150$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1353925.6%10 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No63c147$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.969254.3%50 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No51c140$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Yes45c136.77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes50c133.32$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6626139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes57c131$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7314637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81a…eba3backed No55c111.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dac…423abacked Yes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc8…86e7backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No54c93.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.848643%37 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes47c90.76$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2610845.4%49 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c88.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.361,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed No53c76.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No41c72.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5599017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked No54c71.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.032560%15 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No54c71.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6222355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No66c68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8810734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No47c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.552718.5%5 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-66%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.61747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x972c…d1a1backed Yes46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c59.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3139414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes22c59.16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.974630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No67c57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1911839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242532%8 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ad6…1758backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.510542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267955.7%44 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3775…9ab5backed No73c45.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc97…60aebacked Yes67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes48c41.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6637117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed No65c41.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.751421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-71.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked No41c40.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.63655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes43c39.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.436847.1%32 W · 36 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc24f…220bbacked Yes44c38.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.321485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb119…680bbacked No50c33.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes46c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.282152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c37…a324backed No47c30.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7747…fe40backed No71c30.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.84683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.15853.4%31 W · 27 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.726355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4856…86debacked No78c25.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x05db…c718backed No76c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.253537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x509d…0799backed No54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No67c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.084753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2b6…4451backed No51c21.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No67c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0710344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c3f…bc25backed No65c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.315076%114 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.422029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad1e…2edcbacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159152.7%48 W · 43 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1af3…b80fbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd20…6159backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x257a…5d9bbacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.