Ukraine · resolved market
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec4147d703a1013d0bdc0ef4dcaf129fe8443e6ad1318edcd2a2ac9eff6c8421
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd56c…529cbacked No | 8c | 947$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…b25fbacked No | 8c | 946.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecd…1b1bbacked No | 8c | 940$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…dea3backed No | 8c | 935$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd62…f6fcbacked No | 7c | 935$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f0…80a3backed No | 7c | 929.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…7b7abacked No | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…e003backed No | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…06d8backed No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…ac08backed No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…c643backed No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…110abacked No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…0085backed No | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c09…cd52backed No | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 78c | 576.68$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…084abacked No | 17c | 557.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 24c | 431.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…ffc0backed No | 18c | 416.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked No | 25c | 270.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 31c | 248.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…202bbacked Yes | 79c | 119.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 100.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 15c | 91.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 13c | 88.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 79c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 68c | 64.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 74c | 50.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…c34dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 73c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…1071backed Yes | 79c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?this page
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 17?Yes won
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.