Ukraine · resolved market
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ca2e0a7b42ccf45991a1c15db8ca217a3fabd36ff741ccf06ff01e597534c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 38c | 689.81$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 64c | 594.85$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.09 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed Yes | 62c | 566.17$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…b0d6backed Yes | 60c | 303$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 37c | 220.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 217.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…88fdbacked Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…ffc0backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed Yes | 69c | 198.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 9c | 167.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…ea70backed Yes | 61c | 165.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 135$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked No | 42c | 125.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 80c | 116.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…202bbacked Yes | 77c | 108.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…1772backed Yes | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed No | 39c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 13c | 88.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 26c | 84.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…b45dbacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…71a2backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 17c | 76.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…201dbacked Yes | 67c | 68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 67.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 64.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 50.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 63c | 47.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 34c | 43.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…dec9backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…cf3cbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5896…447cbacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…19e7backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 64c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Yes | 71c | 23.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…1071backed Yes | 80c | 18.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?this page
- Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?Yes won
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.