AI · resolved market
Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92c49dbe9294a0bfdd25c3794678a954367c8472965f269d604bf06d5e1e12d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb44a…65fabacked No | 3c | 1,351$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 5c | 1,207$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked No | 9c | 1,164$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a41…9c15backed No | 9c | 1,039$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 13c | 599.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 571.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 4c | 567.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 5c | 468.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 405.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 69c | 371.26$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 9c | 350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed No | 11c | 340$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 303.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 7c | 293.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 268$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…863cbacked No | 6c | 250.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 18c | 208.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…980dbacked No | 9c | 202$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 9c | 182.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 142.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 58c | 121$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 17c | 114.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…ea60backed No | 35c | 30.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 58c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…7b2abacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.