Olympics · resolved market
Winter Games 2026: Athlete to be stripped of medal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563a5399a16b76ce4f8b0f0edd894e8d4d21299991bf81fa64b71ade3df41b11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 29c | 2,719$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.84 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…ea8bbacked No | 8c | 1,300$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 8cpaid | +529.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed No | 7c | 900$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…d1fdbacked No | 55c | 318.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 23c | 312.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.83 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 12c | 270$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.4 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 211.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…b091backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 40c | 136$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 14c | 125.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 61c | 110.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…d07ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 70c | 87.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked No | 52c | 73.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 49c | 72.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…5292backed No | 75c | 66.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 60.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…7ff5backed No | 21c | 56.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +386.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 61c | 49.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…a43ebacked Yes | 44c | 45.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…569cbacked No | 50c | 44.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed No | 36c | 43.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 58c | 40.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…c270backed Yes | 46c | 36.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 48c | 34.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 41c | 33.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…aa41backed No | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…905fbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 50c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.