Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Elizabeth Lee be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b51aba7e040c4db83810004489d661a37fa3a04abb48248382da62fed8955eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 1,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 7c | 1,055$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 7c | 934.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 14c | 796.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 15c | 673.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 624$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 571.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 18c | 480.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…f8c9backed No | 9c | 441.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 400.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 13c | 269.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 17c | 264$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 7c | 240$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 74c | 225.28$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…0d87backed Yes | 80c | 210.71$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 7c | 209$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…4e74backed No | 8c | 192.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 27c | 179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 9c | 172.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 170.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 122.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 9c | 117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 22c | 93.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +127.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 14c | 86.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 15c | 80.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 29c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 29c | 69.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…b063backed Yes | 80c | 66.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 80c | 41.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elizabeth Lee be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Blake Bracht be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Brian Hualde be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Chris James be the AZ-05 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.