TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0bfb…26a7backed No3c8,927$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8532243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes33c5,539$1,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,734.5713441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a7c…1dc7backed No30c3,166$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed No49c2,698$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.4415740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed No7c2,591$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.92254%1 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-83.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No10c2,128$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.2421831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No3c1,950$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.18933.7%30 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+47.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes71c1,948$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.7821631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e48…14d7backed No2c1,559$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d25…9ca9backed No4c1,556$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3f…6e55backed No6c1,500$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+59%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No8c1,498$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4235921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67fa…1a08backed No25c1,201$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No4c1,200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3432…ab71backed No12c1,149$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc630…fbe4backed No25c1,043$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.541533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes17c999.97$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.9836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes55c890.48$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.4338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf394…ad79backed No10c800.09$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…abe7backed No4c787.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35110%0 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No17c742.11$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1248833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1c…e801backed No37c679.72$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.472744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+28.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No2c673.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.88283.6%1 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed No5c650$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…4554backed No78c638.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x121d…832abacked No21c633.6$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304734%16 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a9…78ebbacked No5c581.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32fe…eb6fbacked No67c546.57$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x554d…781ebacked No67c528.7$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No60c504.06$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.956543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fb3…d852backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a5…3d92backed No7c499.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No24c475.27$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c423.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.661,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed No11c400$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462317.4%4 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-68.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes42c398.27$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.893850%19 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes12c388.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.765442.6%23 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+45.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No76c385.5$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.287946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa22b…0673backed No27c366.19$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-60.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No9c351.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8812023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3f6…1326backed No30c334.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d88…39d8backed No5c320.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick19cpaid-4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19215943.4%69 W · 90 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No69c299.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.998257.3%47 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed No16c260$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.911729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200d…f118backed No12c252.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked No62c245$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.264141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a6e…e8adbacked No75c239.72$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.56944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-39.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd64d…d51ebacked No45c239.21$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b06…3489backed Yes67c236.47$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes31c236.08$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1649739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe04a…9eb8backed No22c227.72$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e71…c3b3backed No22c227.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes37c215.73$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.8333337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe65f…9352backed No35c213.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.561330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94c5…e6eebacked No29c207.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.24944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick21cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes45c202.89$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No53c201.86$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7619056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb9a…6e8bbacked No79c201.47$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82ae…2890backed No11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes19c200$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16216648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No9c192$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1318135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa608…07b3backed No67c150.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0e…b936backed No14c147.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No76c115.25$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8425339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes29c113.26$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.511910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15aa…ff02backed Yes35c108.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.781163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+99%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes23c107.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.031010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9804…42e3backed No74c101.76$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x050e…6822backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c14…6342backed Yes75c93.3$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.31560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefb9…4383backed Yes44c91.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed No59c88.65$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0110742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes79c86.44$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0211037.3%41 W · 69 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes67c81.27$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4915347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x715c…d081backed No20c81.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10f…56f4backed Yes64c78.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.281464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x619d…b31cbacked Yes75c77.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.33847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes67c77.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6221726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes44c71.95$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.972240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked Yes29c69.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6610141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d7c…93b2backed No76c69.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.573452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+27.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d6e…fdb4backed No75c66.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick78cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe462…1a2abacked No25c64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe092…763abacked No24c62.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Yes39c62.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9814249.3%70 W · 72 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes21c62.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0112325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes49c59.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.614156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes69c56.91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.727268.1%49 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204425%11 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a2…051bbacked Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.058760.9%53 W · 34 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed Yes50c51.64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8326756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ba9…2210backed Yes78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x929a…5ab4backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.866753.7%36 W · 31 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdff9…f85dbacked Yes40c49.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x138f…e0bbbacked No41c48.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed No63c46.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes78c44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.659981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.