Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0074fb9ae433abcf31338cf8089e868dfb5fbd78c7c8299953c1b47b89b5eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,334$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked No | 6c | 1,213$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 9c | 1,105$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…abe7backed No | 5c | 1,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked No | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 11c | 785.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…a17bbacked No | 4c | 753.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 20c | 554.3$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 410.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 19c | 392.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 78c | 382$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 74c | 350$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed No | 10c | 319.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb761…b97fbacked No | 8c | 307.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 288.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa562…6581backed No | 3c | 286.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…89d7backed No | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 15c | 242$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…dec5backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 212.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…178ebacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 78c | 149.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked No | 25c | 120.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…40bfbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 13c | 83.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 29c | 69.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 17c | 60.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 78c | 48.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 42c | 35.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 13, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.