Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54f012a59e5d456aeec1b747d12a9d5a8f0172cf146b8bde281b0f71f321287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 1,645$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e1…fcc4backed No | 16c | 631.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed Yes | 76c | 534.82$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 19c | 500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 444$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 14c | 304.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cd…0998backed No | 29c | 268.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…144bbacked No | 15c | 205.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 71c | 180.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed No | 39c | 179.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 25c | 165$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 7c | 152.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 11c | 145.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…4a1bbacked No | 40c | 101.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 75c | 28.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?this page
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 13, 2026?No won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.