Spread: France (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ceea27e0be205caef144f55a2b4bfde8a8afd8a19a2958f66d928ef587d056a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Englandof France, England
Resolved: Jul 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $575,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $608,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $575,431 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaf4d…77c6backed France	10c	101,564$9,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,950.28	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	+13.4wins	+0.18per pick	30cpaid	+80.2%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked France	16c	56,620$9,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,059.12	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed France	0c	51,903$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.35	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed France	13c	9,911$1,337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,336.66	757	29.3%222 W · 535 L	-23.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63af…2d0cbacked France	2c	6,528$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.84	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed France	2c	4,388$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.31	268	41.8%112 W · 156 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed France	14c	4,250$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed France	3c	4,098$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.34	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed France	2c	3,724$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed France	14c	3,217$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.25	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e2…5969backed France	14c	2,693$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.01	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed France	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ff…7ccbbacked France	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	254	18.1%46 W · 208 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7493…fe92backed France	13c	1,794$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.19	246	26%64 W · 182 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6f…d024backed France	17c	1,417$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.85	774	33.1%256 W · 518 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed France	1c	1,155$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0af…bfd0backed France	2c	1,048$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed France	17c	999.99$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…9845backed France	2c	980.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	78	5.1%4 W · 74 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed France	7c	978.65$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.32	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked France	14c	800$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	179	19%34 W · 145 L	+9.1wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed France	16c	791.67$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	332	21.7%72 W · 260 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked France	14c	773.21$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.25	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed France	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ca…298dbacked France	15c	666.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.98	58	24.1%14 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+127.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed France	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	206	26.2%54 W · 152 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd404…b4ebbacked France	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b85…2b26backed France	14c	571.85$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.06	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked France	7c	536.42$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.55	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3a9…b216backed France	4c	524.75$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2fb…3a27backed France	15c	520$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33fd…bc3abacked France	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed France	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	+3.7wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked France	16c	495.13$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.22	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed France	13c	468.24$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	119	28.6%34 W · 85 L	+6.6wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed France	3c	460$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-46.1wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed France	16c	407$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.12	184	36.4%67 W · 117 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…bf6cbacked France	10c	372.13$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.54	119	57.1%68 W · 51 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked France	13c	371.15$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.97	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf692…8655backed France	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-26%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked France	16c	327.5$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.4	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf562…4099backed France	16c	320$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	29cpaid	+118.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked France	16c	315.63$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	100	19%19 W · 81 L	-11.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked France	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x817a…7f1cbacked France	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	62	32.3%20 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed France	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	463	19.9%92 W · 371 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed France	11c	293.27$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	589	42.6%251 W · 338 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked France	6c	284$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc423…03b9backed France	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	409	12%49 W · 360 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed France	13c	222.21$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked France	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	234	29.1%68 W · 166 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked France	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa83d…3896backed France	14c	180$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked France	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked France	13c	154.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.12	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda34…b1debacked France	11c	151.88$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…0d41backed France	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46f…0819backed France	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked France	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	128	39.1%50 W · 78 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf23a…6eb8backed France	14c	135.71$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…5d96backed France	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	194	31.4%61 W · 133 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42b3…5e70backed France	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0eeb…4f05backed France	16c	120.81$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7150…6a8abacked France	16c	120$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4b1…faebbacked France	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-81.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed France	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	298	13.8%41 W · 257 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb57…b869backed France	11c	99.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+3.2wins	+0.19per pick	34cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf62d…0435backed France	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked France	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe4c…eda2backed France	14c	75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x886f…c994backed France	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd044…4169backed France	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 45 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: France (-2.5)this page
France vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. England: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
France vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: England O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: England O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: England O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. England: France 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
France vs. England: France 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
France vs. England: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: France O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: France O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: France O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 0.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 1.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 2.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 3.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 4.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 5.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 6.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 7.5Over won
France vs. England: O/U 8.5Over won
France vs. England: Team to WinEngland won
France vs. England: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
France vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: England (-1.5)England won
Spread: England (-2.5)France won
Spread: England (-3.5)France won
Spread: England (-4.5)France won
Spread: England (-5.5)France won
Spread: France (-1.5)England won
Spread: France (-3.5)England won
Spread: France (-4.5)England won
Spread: France (-5.5)England won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: France (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event