Fifa International · resolved market
Will the final be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf2532b4bd12b289603bca8fd640e4bc1b1d1ccc5a52c97d6dfd8a8ccd47bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 2,112$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.24 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 10c | 1,959$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,126$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 10c | 899.16$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 28.6%34 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 11c | 188.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 249 | 54.2%135 W · 114 L | +40.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 112.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 79c | 35.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the final be FRA vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will the final be ESP vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will the final be ESP vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the final be ESP vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the final be ESP vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the final be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the final be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the final be FRA vs SUI at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will the final be MAR vs NOR at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.