AI · resolved market
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb12d5272fa7afee2252d16f367cb4a03ffcafe4224944b30a542e712897d97ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 29c | 4,793$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 56c | 4,482$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 1,977$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.22 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,382$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,242$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 79c | 874.67$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 75c | 859.22$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.23 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 44c | 835.19$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.59 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 24c | 832$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 823.71$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.74 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 796$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…9b12backed Yes | 3c | 531.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked No | 75c | 506.25$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 32c | 501.96$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 73c | 425.57$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.97 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 395.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked Yes | 38c | 394.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 14c | 350$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 50c | 322.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked Yes | 38c | 314.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 5c | 232.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 26c | 221.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.58 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 65c | 210$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 25c | 105.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 51c | 104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 10c | 100.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…30e9backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb95…1e89backed Yes | 42c | 97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 72c | 87.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 60c | 81.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 77.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 75c | 68.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…181cbacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 38c | 53.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…a81ebacked Yes | 50c | 34.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed No | 62c | 28.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…f8afbacked Yes | 79c | 27.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked Yes | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…d9b5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f92…d732backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8dd1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…02f5backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.